Amy Webb, a quantitative futurist and the author of ‘The Signals are Talking’ wrote yet another ground breaking book named ‘The Big Nine: How the Tech Titans & Their Thinking Machines Could Warp Humanity’.

 

 This book provides a detailed description on the past, present and majorly futuristic development and impact of artificial intelligence (AI). The big nine companies primarily based in the US and China are discussed and their economic policies, geopolitical relations, military affairs etc factors are taken into account.

The author has applied uncommon methodology system using “scenarios” that is combining all the probabilities and assuming a point of view generated from them. The three scenarios for the coming 50 years (that is till 2069) have been discussed under the heads “optimistic”, “pragmatic” and “catastrophic”. Each of them varying extensively although some factors remaining same throughout. The book proposes solutions that aim to tame or rather minimize the threats posed by the AI, the warning signals of which have already started appearing, our super independence on our email address, as explained in the book.

 

The book begins with nostalgia, bringing light to the major past events in the history of AI and how far we have reached. The difference of approach in this field between US and China is portrayed. The author claims US approach to be “nowist” or short sighted, commenting on extra attention on mere politics rather than national security, AI development and international strategies.

 

China, she explains, has much more futuristic and strategically planned approach towards reaching the apex in this field through various initiatives. The upper hand which China has is it’s population which provides the huge set of data in this AI era, hence refining the system there.

 

The importance of starting to treat AI as a public good is stressed upon. A shift in our thinking is called for by the author, which would make AI a public good rather than it’s continued concentration in the hands of the big nine; Google, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, IBM and Amazon (G-MAFIA) in the US and Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent (BAT) in China. Detailed description of our path from ANI (artificial narrow intelligence) to AGI (artificial general intelligence) to ASI (artificial super intelligence) by the use of the Darwanian theory is done – all extrapolated from the current facts. 

 

The optimistic scenario elaborates on the utopian state of the world, where we paid heed to the warning signals and behaved accordingly. US operation in AI are more farsighted now. Economic development and growth have seen an increase along with productivity. The G-MAFIA has proved to be the supporting system for this change. AI proves not to be a replacement of creativity rather than a complementing tool.

 

In the pragmatic scenario the author indicates upon what would happen if the ignorant behaviour of the US towards AI continues. The big nine, because of consumer’s desires, are forced to launch new products and services rather than working on their vulnerabilities and enhancing their work in AI field. The geopolitical aspect is discussed and repercussions of side-eyeing of China by the West is called a mistake.

 

The third, catastrophic scenario seems a bit extreme, although far sightedly accurate. The author has forecasted the division of society in terms of the usage of products by the GAA (Google, Apple and Amazon). Families get segregated under these heads. “Digital caste system” prevails and societal values get framed accordingly. China emerges as a super power.

 

In the ending part of the book, various solutions to prevent the latter two scenarios and bring in optimistic scenario to life have been listed. The role of the big nine as shapers of the AI world has been recalled for us. They aren’t merely sole producers of gadgets, apps or market influencers. Instead, they are the whistle blowers for our future. Hence as suggested by the author, the governments of various nations should start treating them as the same.

 

 The book is highly futuristic. All the events as forecasted in the book might not stand valid due to the unstable situations, like pandemics or natural calamities in the world. The solutions are idealistic and the present world implementation of them is controversial given the current socio-political-economic set up. 

 

The book will strongly appeal to those who are interested in geopolitics, artificial intelligence, forecasting, macroeconomics etc. Although the reference to the near future is in a deeply shaking way, the key takeaway is how all of it is based on the currently prevailing conditions whether they be between world economies, politics, international treaties etc. A must read to have an in depth look of how our world will look depending on the path which AI takes, backed by the Big Nine and the world leaders.