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The Humanitarian Crisis in Venezuela

On the brink of a humanitarian, socioeconomic and political dissolution, which has now become the “second-largest external displacement crisis in the world” as labelled by the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Venezuela finds itself in a highly critical position in the contemporary world. The condition of the country has even been compared to that of the United States during the Great Depression and of the Soviet Union during its disintegration by some economists. It was also estimated in March 2019 in a United Nations (UN) Report that almost 94% of the population was living in poverty.

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Background and Chávez Administration

Venezuela, as a country has been predominantly very rich in oil reserves, by far still having the largest oil reserves. Much of the curve of its economic development is thus based on oil exports. However, due to the fall in the global oil prices in the 1980s, the economy started dwindling, with the country facing massive debts.

The chief fons et origo of one of the worst crises in history is linked to the Presidency of Hugo Chávez, his policies and actions as well as that of his successor, Nicolás Maduro. After getting elected to an attempt of coup d'état in 1992, Chávez promised social upliftment and well-being of the poor through his policies heavily relying upon the oil revenues and food imports. However, in the 1990s, the country also started facing shortages of food and other necessities, which further was incentivized by the socialist policies under the “Bolivarian Revolution” adopted by the Government.

Overspending and over reliance on imports including devaluation of the currency (ultimately by 32% till Chávez’s Administration) and the policy of price control which involved the setting up of a currency control board in 2003, placing further limits on the amounts of foreign currency that could be purchased by a resident, compounded by other major factors gave way to a downward spiral leading to outstanding debts for the economy. Venezuela, every now and then, started facing shortages due to high inflation and incompetent financial rundowns.

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The Maduro Administration

The situation exacerbated after Nicolás Maduro took charge as the President soon after the death of Hugo Chávez in 2013. The Maduro Administration continued with mostly the existing policies along with the adoption of the policy of withholding United States dollars from importers, which fueled the conditions further. Protests became visible from 2014 owing to violence, inflation and shortages. The economy soon entered into recession.

With the decrease in oil prices in 2015, Venezuela’s oil production declined because of continuous lack of investment and maintenance. Hyperinflation skyrocketed to 800% in 2016 and though there have been debates regarding the inflation rates in 2018 owing to the lack of transparency by the Central Bank of Venezuela with other sources producing different figures, it was assumed to be in thousands and very high. The government retaliated by denying the existence of the crisis and started taking violent measures and strict actions against its opposition.

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Venezuelan streets were soon filled with extrajudicial killings by 2017, of which around 7000 had been reported by the UN in 2019. The United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) established the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (FFMV) in September 2019. Its first report, which covered cases of extrajudicial executions, forced disappearances, arbitrary detentions, torture, and cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment, including sexual and gender-based violence, carried out by Venezuelan state actors since 2014, was released in February 2019.

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On the economic front, The Wall Street Journal claimed in March 2019 that the "primary source of hyperinflation is the central bank printing money to pay gaping public spending deficits," citing the fact that a teacher's salary (according to the minimum wage imposed during that time) could only be used to purchase a dozen eggs and two pounds of cheese. With the abuse of political powers and fraudulent conduction of elections, Maduro managed to rise to power as the President again in 2018. However, as opposition leader and head of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó declared himself to be interim president according to the Constitution. Guaidó is recognized by the United States, Canada and even some of the Latin American neighbours of Venezuela, though he isn’t able to wield much power.

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Consequences & The Present Scenario

The series of events that occurred culminated into the largest refugee crisis in the Americas and the second largest in the world. According to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), about 6.8 million people have already fled the country and others are continuing to leave to “escape violence, insecurity and threats as well as lack of food, medicine and essential services”.

The advent of the Coronavirus pandemic has further aggravated the state of affairs. The country is characterised by corruption, unemployment, shortages of food and medicine, closure of businesses, deterioration of productivity, authoritarian rule, human rights violations and widespread economic mismanagement. According to the 2020-21 National Living Conditions Survey (ENCOVI), 94.5% of the population was classified as living in poverty based on income, with 76.6% of that population living in extreme poverty, the greatest percentage ever observed in the nation and accounting to about 28 million of the country’s residents.

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Actions have been taken by the international community, including imposition of multiple sanctions on the administration. For the betterment of the situation, the steps taken by the international bodies to provide monetary and other aid to the citizens did not initially prove fruitful as the Maduro government was not cooperative and continued to sideline and block any aid. However, gradually, the government has recognized the need of the hour and has allowed its flow along with signing of various other agreements, which is evident from the fact that monthly inflation gobbled down to 50% by the end of December 2021 according to the Central Bank of Venezuela, breaking one of the longest cycles of hyperinflation. 

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The government has also started taking reforms and required measures for economic revival, though it is still expected to take a substantial amount of time to get Venezuela back on its feet. However, on the security front, it can only be hoped that the issues be resolved with the government’s active coordination with the United Nations and allied agencies like FFMV and other means.

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Vismay Vairagi

Senior Editor, Editorial Board

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