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WEIGHING THE WIN

On the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences 2019.

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Sukriti Aggarwal explains the significance of the win.

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2019 was jointly awarded to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty.  Their experiment based approach has opened doors for more research in development economics as a discipline which has been side-lined in the past for not being able to make substantial contributions to economic policies at large. It is the fifth prize to be awarded to development economics of the 51 Nobel economics prizes conferred to 84 scholars till date making it a rare award. The fact that a poverty intervention study has received the Nobel is a gamechanger for economics as a whole.

Over the last two decades, Banerjee, Duflo and Kremer have conducted large-scale field experiments to identify successful poverty alleviation strategies. Their focus was more on an empirical and experimental approach than  theoretical. Technology became an important tool to successfully implement the research making large scale date collection and analysis easier and feasible. The research is based upon on a method known as Randomised Control Trials (RCT). It is a new approach to obtain the best methods to combat global poverty. The approach is to choose two random groups. One group of population is ‘treated’ with the policy and the changes in this group are compared with the ‘control’ group where all other things are constant except for the policy intervention. Changes in the treated group are observed, recorded and compared with the control group. If the policy had a positive impact, it would be safe to conclude that the experiment was successful and the policy could be implemented and if not then changes in the experiment could be made and a new model could be presented and experimented with.

The interventions are carefully designed experiments conducted for and among the people who are most affected. A range of interventions were tested by field experiments to demonstrate the potential of the approach by Michael Kremer and his colleagues to improve school results in Western Kenya.  Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer together and individually performed similar studies of other issues in different countries.

Over the years, field studies using randomised trials were made in India and Africa. As a direct result of one of Banerjee and Duflo’s studies, more than five million Indian children have benefitted from effective programmes of remedial tutoring in schools.

The approach highlighted a very crucial aspect that is often ignored in the wake of big structural advancements policies that successful small-scale interventions could also make a bigger and beneficial impact by receiving adequate support from nongovernmental organizations, aid agencies, private foundations, impact investment funds, and governments.

With this Nobel Prize, the use of RCT by economists could increase as there had already been a dramatic increase in use of RCT in development research. Their research method now entirely dominates development economics. There are many more examples of how this new research has already helped to alleviate global poverty. RCT has provided a basis for development policymaking, there is way more to go in future.

Pranav Jha discusses the gaps in the RCT approach, and the implications for the field of development economics.

Development economists have tried to grapple with the implications of this experimental approach on their field. Deaton and Dreze have been vocal critics of the Nobel win; their arguments are encapsulated as below.


The politics of policies is ignored.

Policy suggestions derived from this approach would be based on empirical evidence: but the implementation of  value arguments and policies on ground would depend upon will and live politics. For example, inclusion of eggs in mid-day meals augur well for enhancing child nutrition – but this could be opposed by religious groups that preach vegetarianism. As Dreze writes in this context:  “This endeavour, however, is likely to be all the more useful if we bear in mind that evidence involves more than RCTs, understanding more than evidence, and policy more than understanding.”

Samples may not hold true for the entire populace.

In the randomised control trial approach, evidence is established by conducting trials in a target group: then this evidence is generalised for a large segment. If it works at one place, it might not be guaranteed that it works in other places as well, and if the solution to this is to carry out a number of localised trials  and provide for a better sample size, then we must confront the fact that this experimental approach comes with its monetary costs, and these costs may hamper feasibility of more localised experiments. Moreover, the institutional setups that developmental economics has been rooted in risks glossing over; as Sanjeev Reddy notes:  “Randomised trials cannot help greatly to illuminate the merits of broader and more complex proposals for institutional design arising in crucible of real problem solving.”

RCTs must confront its ethical paradoxes.

Chirantan Chatterjee writes for the Telegraph: “It should be noted that Nobel laureates like Angus Deaton and others have debated the use of RCT methods because of their concern for ethics and external validity. In 2016, Banerjee and his co-authors published the findings of an RCT with informal healthcare providers in West Bengal in Science. They noted that training informal providers increased correct case management rates but did not reduce the use of unnecessary medicines or antibiotics. While this is a neat causal finding for countries with inadequate formally trained doctors and nurses, the study raises questions on the ethics of the intervention, its external validity, and the operationalization at scale.  History suggests that this may be dangerous, especially for settings like India with its informal care providers.”

RCTs are subject to inadvertent bias. Representativeness of such trials might influence policies as well. What is the extent of randomisation? How can we create truly random groups, and if such groups are random, are they truly representative of the realities on ground? RCTs in economics pose the same ethical concerns associated with RCTs in medicine: who gets the drug and who doesn’t? This consideration has not received enough coverage in popular media.

What are the implications for the field of developmental economics?

Dipa Sinha, noted academician, though suggests that their work has revolutionized the field of developmental economics, but the structures and institutions that create poverty are not challenged and discussed. Dr Shialaja Fennell, Senior Lecturer at the Centre of Development Studies at Cambridge University, writes a word of caution against widespread use of RCTs in development research: “It is good that the contribution of development economics has been recognised. However, it is important to note that experimental RCTs and natural experiments tend to estimate abstract efficacy instead of actual efficacy. The difference between these two types of efficacy arises due to a false assumption that a ‘gold standard’ of perfect identification is possible from the evidence obtained from the experiment. The evidence is then taken at face-value without due regard to the possibility of conceptual or ethical concerns.”

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