The lovely tale of Liquor
during Lockdown and before
At every stage, addiction is driven by one of the most powerful, mysterious, and
vital forces of human existence. What drives addiction is longing —
a longing not just of brain, belly, or loins but finally of the heart.
Cornelius Platinga
The use of alcohol in India for drinking purposes dates back to somewhere between 3000 and 2000 BC. An alcoholic beverage called Sura which was distilled from the rice was popular at that time in India for common men to unwind at the end of a stressful day. . Yet the first mention of Alcohol appears in Rig Veda (1700BC). It mentions intoxicants like soma and prahamana. Although the soma plant might not exist today, it was famous for delivering a euphoric high. It was also recorded in the Samhita, the medical compendium of Sushruta that he who drinks soma will not age and will be impervious to fire, poison, or weapon attack. The sweet juice of Soma was also said to help establish a connection with the gods. Such was the popularity of alcohol. Initially used for medicinal purposes, with time it evolved and became the beverage that brought life to social gatherings, and eventually consuming alcohol has become a habit for many.
With such a rich history of not just humans but also of the gods,
what is a worldwide pandemic to stop anybody from drinking?
. . .
According to a report released by the World Health Organisation (WHO) in 2018, an average Indian drinks approximately 5.7 liters of alcohol every year. In a population of casual and excessive drinkers, with the shutters of liquor stores down, it must have been extremely difficult for “certain” people to survive lockdown. In the first two phases of lockdown, the desperation had quadrupled prices of alcohol in the Grey Market of India. Also, According to Google Trends, online searches for “how to make alcohol at home” peaked in India during the fourth week of March, which was the same when the lockdown was announced. As a consequence, a few people died drinking home-brewed liquor. People committed suicide due to alcohol withdrawal syndrome. Owing to the worsening situation and to reboot the economy, some states decided to open licensed liquor stores in the third phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic lockdown in India. This decision was the worst best decision the state governments could take. The kilometer-long queues in front of liquor stores were evidence that a pandemic can turn your life upside down yet your relationship with alcohol cannot move an inch.
The love in the hearts of those who are addicted was explicit. We might have seen addiction, we might have witnessed desperation but what happened in the month of May was madness, not just in terms of the way people pounced but also in the way the government earned. According to a report by Hindustan Times, on the first day of the third phase of Lockdown, the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh recorded a sale of over Rs 100 Crore from liquor. On the second day of the reopening of Liquor stores, Karnataka reported sales of 197 crores in a single day which was the largest ever. Eventually, the prices of Liquor were hiked to 100% to discourage people from drinking.
. . .
There was a special corona fee that was imposed in Delhi by Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. A 70% corona fee was imposed in Delhi, yet the sales did not drop. The entire situation was a disaster for the law enforcement officers, social distancing was easily abandoned and a basic code of conduct was happily violated. Despite the chaos created, the states continued to collect revenues. Home delivery of alcohol was allowed in Maharashtra and e-tokens were sold in Delhi.
Demand for liquor is inelastic which means that
the sale of alcohol is not much responsive to change in prices.
In general, since alcohol policy is a state subject in India, revenue from Liquor is a cash cow for state governments. In 2018 and 2019, four states collectively collected about 20,000 crores in taxes from the sale of liquor. As much as the state earns from the sale of Liquor it is undoubtedly, a threat to the Economy. Consumption of alcohol has dire health consequences. When a person consumes an alcoholic beverage, there is a rise in BAC because of which there is a gradual and progressive loss of driving ability because of an increase in reaction time, overconfidence, degraded muscle coordination, impaired concentration, and decreased auditory and visual acuity. This is known as drunken driving. (V. M. Anantha Eashwar, 2020) Drunken driving is the third biggest cause of road accidents and over speeding in India. Road accidents are not it; alcoholism causes sleep problems, heart, and liver issues. Also, it is not about an individual’s life, it ruins the lives of all people concerned.
Addiction also causes economic loss. In 2000, Vivek Benegal and his team assessed 113 patients admitted to a special de-addiction service for alcohol dependence. They found that
the average individual earned a mean of ₹1,661 but
spent ₹1,938 per month on alcohol, incurring high debt.
They also found that 95% did not work for about 14 days in a month. They concluded that it led to a loss of ₹13,823 per person per year in terms of foregone productivity. A more recent study, Health Impact and Economic Burden of Alcohol Consumption in India, led by Gaurav Jyani, concluded that alcohol-attributable deaths would lead to a loss of 258 million life-years between 2011 and 2050. The study placed the economic burden on the health system at $48.11 billion, and the societal burden (including health costs, productivity loss, and so on) at $1,867 billion. “This amounts to an average loss of 1.45% of the gross domestic product (GDP) per year to the Indian economy,” the study said. (Mint, 2020)
Setho ka Gaon

With each passing day, the ‘curtain of separation’ weighs down on the women of Afghanistan, paving the way for tyranny to thrive.
Arth

WEIGHING THE WIN
On the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences 2019.

Sukriti Aggarwal explains the significance of the win.
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2019 was jointly awarded to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty. Their experiment based approach has opened doors for more research in development economics as a discipline which has been side-lined in the past for not being able to make substantial contributions to economic policies at large. It is the fifth prize to be awarded to development economics of the 51 Nobel economics prizes conferred to 84 scholars till date making it a rare award. The fact that a poverty intervention study has received the Nobel is a gamechanger for economics as a whole.
Over the last two decades, Banerjee, Duflo and Kremer have conducted large-scale field experiments to identify successful poverty alleviation strategies. Their focus was more on an empirical and experimental approach than theoretical. Technology became an important tool to successfully implement the research making large scale date collection and analysis easier and feasible. The research is based upon on a method known as Randomised Control Trials (RCT). It is a new approach to obtain the best methods to combat global poverty. The approach is to choose two random groups. One group of population is ‘treated’ with the policy and the changes in this group are compared with the ‘control’ group where all other things are constant except for the policy intervention. Changes in the treated group are observed, recorded and compared with the control group. If the policy had a positive impact, it would be safe to conclude that the experiment was successful and the policy could be implemented and if not then changes in the experiment could be made and a new model could be presented and experimented with.
The interventions are carefully designed experiments conducted for and among the people who are most affected. A range of interventions were tested by field experiments to demonstrate the potential of the approach by Michael Kremer and his colleagues to improve school results in Western Kenya. Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer together and individually performed similar studies of other issues in different countries.
Over the years, field studies using randomised trials were made in India and Africa. As a direct result of one of Banerjee and Duflo’s studies, more than five million Indian children have benefitted from effective programmes of remedial tutoring in schools.
The approach highlighted a very crucial aspect that is often ignored in the wake of big structural advancements policies that successful small-scale interventions could also make a bigger and beneficial impact by receiving adequate support from nongovernmental organizations, aid agencies, private foundations, impact investment funds, and governments.
With this Nobel Prize, the use of RCT by economists could increase as there had already been a dramatic increase in use of RCT in development research. Their research method now entirely dominates development economics. There are many more examples of how this new research has already helped to alleviate global poverty. RCT has provided a basis for development policymaking, there is way more to go in future.
Pranav Jha discusses the gaps in the RCT approach, and the implications for the field of development economics.
Development economists have tried to grapple with the implications of this experimental approach on their field. Deaton and Dreze have been vocal critics of the Nobel win; their arguments are encapsulated as below.
The politics of policies is ignored.
Policy suggestions derived from this approach would be based on empirical evidence: but the implementation of value arguments and policies on ground would depend upon will and live politics. For example, inclusion of eggs in mid-day meals augur well for enhancing child nutrition – but this could be opposed by religious groups that preach vegetarianism. As Dreze writes in this context: “This endeavour, however, is likely to be all the more useful if we bear in mind that evidence involves more than RCTs, understanding more than evidence, and policy more than understanding.”
Samples may not hold true for the entire populace.
In the randomised control trial approach, evidence is established by conducting trials in a target group: then this evidence is generalised for a large segment. If it works at one place, it might not be guaranteed that it works in other places as well, and if the solution to this is to carry out a number of localised trials and provide for a better sample size, then we must confront the fact that this experimental approach comes with its monetary costs, and these costs may hamper feasibility of more localised experiments. Moreover, the institutional setups that developmental economics has been rooted in risks glossing over; as Sanjeev Reddy notes: “Randomised trials cannot help greatly to illuminate the merits of broader and more complex proposals for institutional design arising in crucible of real problem solving.”
RCTs must confront its ethical paradoxes.
Chirantan Chatterjee writes for the Telegraph: “It should be noted that Nobel laureates like Angus Deaton and others have debated the use of RCT methods because of their concern for ethics and external validity. In 2016, Banerjee and his co-authors published the findings of an RCT with informal healthcare providers in West Bengal in Science. They noted that training informal providers increased correct case management rates but did not reduce the use of unnecessary medicines or antibiotics. While this is a neat causal finding for countries with inadequate formally trained doctors and nurses, the study raises questions on the ethics of the intervention, its external validity, and the operationalization at scale. History suggests that this may be dangerous, especially for settings like India with its informal care providers.”
RCTs are subject to inadvertent bias. Representativeness of such trials might influence policies as well. What is the extent of randomisation? How can we create truly random groups, and if such groups are random, are they truly representative of the realities on ground? RCTs in economics pose the same ethical concerns associated with RCTs in medicine: who gets the drug and who doesn’t? This consideration has not received enough coverage in popular media.
What are the implications for the field of developmental economics?
Dipa Sinha, noted academician, though suggests that their work has revolutionized the field of developmental economics, but the structures and institutions that create poverty are not challenged and discussed. Dr Shialaja Fennell, Senior Lecturer at the Centre of Development Studies at Cambridge University, writes a word of caution against widespread use of RCTs in development research: “It is good that the contribution of development economics has been recognised. However, it is important to note that experimental RCTs and natural experiments tend to estimate abstract efficacy instead of actual efficacy. The difference between these two types of efficacy arises due to a false assumption that a ‘gold standard’ of perfect identification is possible from the evidence obtained from the experiment. The evidence is then taken at face-value without due regard to the possibility of conceptual or ethical concerns.”